Dragas中心主任Robert M. 麦克纳布, who led off the Economic Forecast with a look at the national and Virginia economies, suggested any economic discussion - even a forecast - would be incomplete without examining inflation, supply chain and worker shortage challenges, 哪些是紧密联系的呢. 图Chuck Thomas/ODU
目前仍有令人担忧的迹象, but also strong signals the Hampton Roads economy has weathered the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The annual Economic Forecast, delivered Jan. 26 by economists from ODU's Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, pointed to areas of strength in the local economy - balanced by the sobering reality that our local workforce is not growing, working against our region's economic recovery.
Following a quick rebound from the sudden loss of jobs in the first wave of COVID-19, total employment in Hampton Roads has been stagnant since August 2020, 这一地区剩下近40人,比大流行前的高峰少了000个工作岗位.
"The million-dollar question is will our recovery be like the Great Recession" following the 2007-09 housing crisis, said 经济预测 Project Director Vinod Agarwal, ODU的经济学教授. "It took our region a decade to recover everything we lost."
At the same time, Agarwal showed indicators of real strength in the Hampton Roads economy in 2021. The Port of Virginia is seeing dividends from its infrastructure investments of the previous decades. The hotel economy in this region - not as burdened by the continued lag in business travel - saw the strongest growth among comparable metro regions in the country.
ODU economists are predicting real GDP growth in the region of 2.4% in 2022, 以防御为支撑, 港口, hotels and sustainable increases in the local housing market. "We're quite positive for the Hampton Roads economy for 2022," Agarwal told the audience of more than 100 community and business leaders at the annual luncheon presentation.
However, Dragas中心主任Robert M. 麦克纳布, who led off the Economic Forecast with a look at the national and Virginia economies, suggested any economic discussion - even a forecast - would be incomplete without examining inflation, supply chain and worker shortage challenges, 哪些是紧密联系的呢.
麦克纳布 said the unprecedented steps the federal government took to support workers who lost jobs due to COVID-19 and provide economic stimulus for the broader economy resulted in unusual behavior. "Instead of spending less during a recession, people spent more," he said. This has resulted in pressures on the supply chain to keep up with consumer demand.
"And when you have a lot of money changing hands, you end up with this thing called inflation."
除了, 大流行给个人造成的损失, as well as financial incentives in and out of the workplace, has caused a lot of employees to leave their jobs, either to stop working early or simply utilize their once-in-a-generation bargaining power to seek more for the work that they do.
"We're seeing the Great Resignation concentrated in baby boomers. 适合年轻员工, we are seeing the Great Renegotiation as they seek better opportunities,麦克纳布说.
The Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy in the 斯特罗姆商学院 at bet8体育娱乐入口 undertakes a wide range of economic, 人口, transportation and defense-oriented studies. Since 1999, the Dragas Center has produced influential State of the Region Reports for Hampton Roads.
The Center also conducts forecasts for the U.S., Virginia and Hampton Roads and produces the State of the Commonwealth Report. 了解更多信息, including previous State of the Region and Commonwealth Reports, 以及经济预测, 参观 Dragas中心网站.
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